Nick Steno's Comments

Sadly, just another creationist bit of nonsense, albeit more poorly written than most. Contains numerous lies about how most zoologists believe there are pterosaurs alive in New Zealand. This isn't neat, it's just crazy.
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Certainly it would also be more meaningful to throw out the years when the candidates were unopposed. These 'no-choice' years add favorable results that are not really indicators of these states' 'abilities' to 'choose' the winners.

With that in mind, Iowa's rankings are:
primary + nom (D) = 4/7 = 57%
primary + nom (R) = 3/6 = 50%

and New Hampshire's are:
primary + nom (D) = 5/7 = 71%
primary + nom (R) = 4/6 = 67%

It's also not really fair to straight-count the election results, as there can only be one winner, so that effectively forces a negative on one party's counts. The question for the general election should be whether either state predicted the winner at all, not whether both parties did in each state, which is impossible. Again, uncontested 'choices' don't really count. That leaves 13 total valid choices for each state through the years with both parties. Alternatively, we can count each of the 8 election years as one 'choice' and give incontesteds a half-point:

Iowa:
7 times a candidate won the primary of their party and then went on to win the general election = 7/13 = 54%
5 years with one winner chosen, but 4 of those were uncontested choices = 5/8 (63%) or 3/8 (38%) on points

New Hampshire:
9 times a candidate won the primary of their party and then went on to win the general election = 9/13 = 69%
6 years with one winner chosen, but 3 of those were uncontested choices = 6/8 (75%) or 4.5/8 (56%) on points

NH gets slightly better numbers overall, with the caveat that all these numbers are really too small to mean much.
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Profile for Nick Steno

  • Member Since 2012/08/04


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