So, if we try to make a conclusion based on the Iowa results:Huckabee has a 75% chance of winning the Republican nomination.Huckabee has a 37.5% chance of winning the presidency.Obama has a 62.5% chance of winning the Democratic nomination.Obama has a 12.5% chance of winning the presdidency.That leaves 50% chance that a third party will win the presidency. The only one I hear talked about seriously for that is Michael Bloomberg.The Iowa results makes Bloomberg the most likely winner of the presidency in the general election with 50% chance. Abusive comment hidden. (Show it anyway.)
Huckabee has a 75% chance of winning the Republican nomination.
Huckabee has a 37.5% chance of winning the presidency.
Obama has a 62.5% chance of winning the Democratic nomination.
Obama has a 12.5% chance of winning the presdidency.
That leaves 50% chance that a third party will win the presidency.
The only one I hear talked about seriously for that is Michael Bloomberg.
The Iowa results makes Bloomberg the most likely winner of the presidency in the general election with 50% chance.