12% of Young Americans Are Licensed to Operate a Nuclear Submarine

According to the respected Pew Research Center, which conducts public opinion polling on many topics, 12% of young Americans can operate a SSBN, which is one of these:

The SSGNs are US nuclear-powered submarines that, instead of firing nuclear missiles, fire non-nuclear cruise missles at land-based targets. Navy nuke school is famously demanding, passing only the most focused, intelligent, and physically fit people into the ranks of American submariners. Yet, despite the negative reputation of Generation Z, fully 12% of them have qualified. This percentage far outstrips that of older generations.

What's going on here? Pew does not actually think so many young people have actually earned their Dolphins. Rather, Pew conducted this study to illustrate that opt-in polling produces unreliable results. Opt-in polling means that the study designers do not restrict who can participate in a poll and thus cannot argue that the participants are a representative sample.

The study found that young people and Hispanic adults were especially likely to affirm absurd claims, although I don't see an explanation of why this is the case.

Anyway, when you see the results of an online poll that says that an alarmingly large number of people believe in something profoundly disturbing, such as Holocaust denial, realize that extremely faulty survey design may be the cause of these numbers. The population has not gone completely insane yet.

-via Megan McArdle


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