The Perils of Planning Population by Policy

Fearing a crisis of too many mouths to feed, the government of China instituted the one child policy in 1980. For 35 years, citizens were told that limiting your family to only one child was best, and many came to believe it. Others were subject to forced abortions, fines, and loss of jobs and homes for violating the policy. Gradually, as the effects of the policy were realized, the rules were refined in some areas to allow a family with one girl to try once again for a boy. Then in 2015, the policy was changed to two children. Now the Chinese government is encouraging young women to have three children. But it's not working.

For one thing, there are fewer women reaching childbearing age every year, thanks to the original policy. And the current childbearing-age cohort grew up in one-child homes, believing that was best, as the government told them. Economic reforms led to more young people moving to the cities for better jobs, and the cost of living discourages having any children at all. The population crisis was averted, but now China is facing the prospect of too few young people to support a large population of aging grandparents. The country's population began to drop in 2022, and in 2023 there were half a million fewer births than the year before. The same trend is seen in other countries, but in less stark numbers due to the erstwhile policy. How did all this happen? The original policy was a reaction to demographic projections by a missile scientist who used rocket trajectory numbers in his calculations. Maybe sociologists should have been consulted. Read the history of the one child policy and how China is feeling the fallout today.  -via Damn Interesting


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