What Are the Real Odds?

Jen Clarke of West London opened four eggs in a row that were all double-yolked. The odds of such a thing happening must be astronomical -or are they?
According to the British Egg Information Service, one in every thousand eggs on average is a double-yolker. They're not sure how they've come to this figure but you would like to think that the British Egg Information Service was able to supply useful information about British Eggs, so let's give them the benefit of the doubt.

So, if the probability of finding an egg with two yolks is 1/1000 - then to find the likelihood of discovering four in a row you simply multiply the probabilities together four times. One thousand to the power of four brings us to the grand total of one trillion - that's the new-school US-style trillion with 12 zeroes.

If true that would mean the event that occurred in Jen's kitchen was a trillion-to-one event. But is it true? No is the short answer.

Many factors can affect these odds, like the possibility that a certain chicken or flock laying several eggs that ended up in one carton, or the sorting of eggs by size. There are other factors as well, explained in this BBC article. Link -via Metafilter

Comments (16)

Newest 5
Newest 5 Comments

@kitandterl, perhaps you should read the entire post before criticising it as "IGNORANT" and "stupid". You seem to have completely missed the point. The intent of the post was to explain why the odds of having multiple double yolkers in a carton are NOT as astronomical as some people would have you believe.

@Sharyn, I have had double yolkers from free range farms in Australia before. By the way, I hate to be a grammar Nazi, but it's "luck of the draw".
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Brings back memories of my Grandmother who had an "egg man", old Swiss farmer named Mr.Schmidt. His Jumbo eggs were usually double yolk. Seldom see them in a supermarket egg.
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In the late sixties I belonged to a food co-op that got eggs from some old guy who lived outside the city. Maybe one third of his eggs were double yolked. I never saw that before that time, nor have I seen them since.
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Only on the internet can you read a blog article which is a reprint of a magazine article which is a summary of a television episode.

The meta, it hurts!
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Um, apologies for picking on your spelling, but I think you meant to use the word 'dexterous' (or 'dextrous'; both spellings are okay). That is, unless 'dexterious' is some terrible new hybrid word that people are using.
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One thing to remember about McGyver is that the producers and writers tried to make everything that was explosive or potentially dangerous -not- work if tried in reality. When McGyver would create a chemical mixture to explode out of this or that trap, at least one component would always be off so that kids couldn't blow up their bedrooms at home.

:D
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I think it was in the pilot episode of the A-Team, they escaped a prison with "traaaash baaaaygs" attached to chairs, inflated with frickin' hair dryers! It was an amazing bit of TV.
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My dad told me about an incident in the 1950's on an aircraft carrier where a disgruntled sailor flushed a pound of sodium metal down the toilets and blew them up, disabling them. Needless to say, the sailor was court-martialed, and my dad had a seat on the court. It seems that the key part of getting a major reaction from sodium metal and water is to constrain the reaction, much like the way that gunpowder will burn when unconstrained but explode when constrained.

The problem with Mythbusters is that they often don't think through how to really reproduce a situation and have terrible experimental procedures, such as when they used a bolt-action rifle to test the effects of blocking the barrel of a gun, rather than testing on a semi-automatic like a Colt .45 pistol (which was the original of the myth that they were trying to bust), or when they were testing whether on gets better fuel economy to driving with the windows down on a car or with the air conditioning on - they changed the conditions of the experiment halfway through on that one.
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