2Spare has assembled Top 87 Bad Predictions about the Future. To wit, on the computer category, are these bad predictions:
Where a calculator on the ENIAC is equipped with 18,000 vacuum tubes and weighs 30 tons, computers in the future may have only 1,000 vacuum tubes and weigh only 1.5 tons.
- Popular Mechanics, March 1949.
There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.
- Ken Olson, president, chairman and founder of Digital Equipment Corp. (DEC), maker of big business mainframe computers, arguing against the PC in 1977.
I have traveled the length and breadth of this country and talked with the best people, and I can assure you that data processing is a fad that won't last out the year.
- The editor in charge of business books for Prentice Hall, 1957.
But what... is it good for?
- IBM executive Robert Lloyd, speaking in 1968 microprocessor, the heart of today’s computers.
I also read one time that no-one had predicted mobile phones in science fiction. That seems unlikely as well. The concept of using telephones that are portable must have occurred to writers at the dawning of radio. It seems inconceivable that no-one envisaged that kind of technology.
His terms were a little off, but pretty prophetic. "Information tanks", not servers. "Logics", not personal computers.
You can find a one page description here:
http://www.everything2.com/index.pl?node_id=1270464
The story itself is freely available on the web at several sites, including Baen Book's Free Library at Baen.com
Ed Becerra
I read it in high school (I think). It had this guy who went around writing "macrophages" to do damage to the world wide computer network. Obviously a hacker writing viruses to attack the web.
Never heard of such a thing!
Wikipedia has a neat list of fictional computers mentioned science-fiction novels.
While we're at it, check out Wikipedia's list of failed predictions.
The microprocessor was developed in 1968; early that year the "Star Trek" episode "The Ultimate Computer" aired, featuring the Mark 7, a supercomputer the size of a small steamer trunk that apparently could be rolled about by hand. Quite a bit smaller and more manageable than a Cray, which was the Rolls Royce of supercomputers into the late 1980s at least. (I imagine they're smaller now, but I haven't checked.) So the idea of computers becoming smaller was certainly in place by then. How much smaller, though, was harder to predict, since microcircuitry engraving techniques have improved since then, rendering microprocessors even smaller.
One thing I find fascinating (the Spock reference was unintentional) is that I have not yet read or heard of a science-fiction story from before the late 1980s that makes any mention of an Internet or World-Wide Web. The Internet has been around since the 1960s, when computers were still the domain of scientists and the military. (I still remember, in the late 1970s, my Dad having a bulky, monitor-less computer terminal delivered to our house from work after he broke his knees. He took our kitchen phone off the hook, stuck it onto two rubber cups sticking out of the terminal, and it communicated with another computer over the telephone lines --- the Internet!) It wasn't until after PCs and Macs entered the home that the Internet and the Web entered science-fiction. A "futuristic" communication system that has actually become part of our lives, and it managed to avoid mention in visions of the future until it was already here and "commonplace." Whenever a fellow sci-fi writer gripes about trying to write about the future and make accurate predictions, I cite this example and tell him or her not to worry.
If anyone knows of a sci-fi story from before the late 1980s that DOES mention the Internet or Web, even by a different name, I'd love to hear about it. And if anyone finds such a story from before the 1960s, I'd REALLY love to hear about it!