By 2300 the United Nations forecasts that the global population will be just under 9 billion. World population is expected to rise, peak and then decline slightly between 2050 and 2300. The highest long term population growth is predicted for Africa. Africa is currently underpopulated and has the lowest life expectancies. Other regions' populations are predicted to stay level or decline. Between 2050 and 2300 the areas currently known as India, China, the United States and Pakistan maintain their ranked order as having the world's highest populations. The numbers shown here are estimates - based on predicted future behaviours.
WorldMapper's visualization of the world's population at year 2300 is shown above. See how fat China & India will be and how skinny Australia will be?
The UN assumption that population will peak absolutley by 2050. Then with the fertility rates at negative today, they assume it will correct itself immediately to replacement rates?
I disagree with that assumption.
I see a repeat of the Roman empire's 200 year decline of absolute population. Contraception and overpopulation concepts are hard wired into many people's brains. Many will voluntarily eliminate their bloodlines. When the contraceptive peoples are all but wiped out, the pronatal people will be left to replenish the earth.
Look at the 2050 chart though. India and China both *fall* between 2050 and 2300 predictions. The US, the UK, and Africa increase from 2050 to 2300 (oddly).
Alas, if peak oil projections are even close to accurate, these UN forecasts are sadly mistaken. By 2300 we're more likely to be down to a billion, if we're lucky.
http://img183.imageshack.us/my.php?image=worldhumanpopulationuj7.jpg
I disagree with that assumption.
I see a repeat of the Roman empire's 200 year decline of absolute population. Contraception and overpopulation concepts are hard wired into many people's brains. Many will voluntarily eliminate their bloodlines. When the contraceptive peoples are all but wiped out, the pronatal people will be left to replenish the earth.